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Hotel Booking Some climate scientists may be making a fundamental error in their prediction, says Stanford researcher Raphael Sagarin: overlooking leap years.

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Travel Agency Writing in the December 6 issue of the journal "Nature," Sagarin focuses his attention on recent climate studies documenting the early arrival of spring - an important indicator of global warming. He points out that, by ignoring leap year, climate experts have allowed statistical bias to creep into their analyses, resulting in false estimates of spring's actual arrival.

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Cheap Hotel "A number of international studies have shown that spring is coming significantly earlier each year. The question is how much earlier," notes Sagarin, a postdoctoral fellow in biological sciences at Stanford's Hopkins Marine Station in Pacific Grove.

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Flight Booking Sagarin, who began studying climate change as a Stanford undergraduate in the mid-1990s, has become immersed in the field of phenology, which uses historical records of annual bird migrations, ice melts and other natural events to establish trends in global warming.

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Travel Agent In October, he co-authored a study in "Science," documenting the early arrival of spring in Alaska based on the Nenana Ice Classic - a popular betting contest that awards cash prizes for predicting the exact time of the annual ice breakup on the Tanana River. After examining Ice Classic archives dating back 84 years, Sagarin concluded that, on average, Alaska's springtime thaw is occuring 5.5 days sooner than it did in 1917.

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Hotel Chicago "While I was researching the Science study, I realized that a lot of these phenological surveys of spring events were based on the calendar date rather than on their timing relative to the vernal equinox," Sagarin said.

Online Booking The vernal equinox marks the true arrival of spring. It occurs on March 20 or 21 when the sun is directly above the equator and day and night are of equal length.

Travel Health Insurance In leap years, an extra day is added to February, so the vernal equinox comes a day later on the calendar. As a result, the date of the calendar equinox and the true equinox diverge as the years progress.

Hotel Reservation "This difference causes the equinox to arrive about 0.78 days earlier on the calendar year over 100 years," Sagarin writes in "Nature." "This means that a given calendar date in spring will occur further from the vernal equinox towards the end of any century. As a result, trends towards earlier spring will tend to be overestimated."

London Hotel Booking ENS - 12/6/2001

Topic: Climate Change

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