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Travel Agency Economic forecasters in Los Angeles warn of storm clouds on the horizon. At a time of rising interest rates, they see worrying signs in the nation's booming housing market.

The current market is characterized by enormous number of these contracts being held on the books of financial institutions and because of the housing crisis and slumping economy, credit risk is an amplified concern. Moreover, absent a central clearing house to assume the intermediary risk, dealers have almost altogether stopped trading CDSsa situation akin to Hot Potato or Russian Roulette. party risk, the risk that the other side or someone who was owed by someone else, who owed you, might be stuck with a Hot Potato CDSs such that they could not pay off causing a domino effect.

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Travel Agent March 16, 2005 (AXcess News) Los Angeles - The U.S. economy is in an upturn, and many analysts predict a continued recovery. But economic forecasters in Los Angeles warn of storm clouds on the horizon. At a time of rising interest rates, they see worrying signs in the nation's booming housing market.

The research study also demonstrates that travel agents are increasing their reliance on GDS systems for hotel information. Nearly 90% of travel agents say that they use their GDS and GDS shopping displays as much or more today than two years ago. Travel agents also report increased use of hotel property Web sites compared to two years ago. Travel agents are less likely now to use printed hotel directories, direct mail, fax, and the phone to gather information about hotels.

Hotel Chicago U.S. retail receipts are up. So is factory production. Jobs are being created and the U.S. economy grew at a rate of nearly four percent last year.

Online Booking 2004 was a great year, says Edward Leamer, director of the quarterly forecast at the Anderson School of Management at the University of California, Los Angeles. He says the good times may continue for a year or two, but by 2006 or 2007, he thinks the U.S. economy may face some stormy weather.

Travel Health Insurance "The risks come from the housing sector. We have an over-inflated housing stock," he said. "We have very high levels of building, construction, repair work."

Hotel Reservation He says that even a modest cutback could send the country into recession, and he believes recession will probably come by the end of the decade.Home prices have gone up quickly in many parts of the country, including southern Florida, Washington DC, and parts of the northeastern United States. In southern California, housing prices have doubled in the last three years, fueled here as elsewhere by low interest rates that have spurred a frenzy of buying and refinancing.Advertisement

London Hotel Booking UCLA economist Christopher Thornberg says the rise in home prices totals $500 billion in California, and he says it gives homeowners a false sense of wealth."This is an enormous amount. In fact, it represents something on the order of $25,000 in terms of housing appreciation for every adult in the state," he explained.Some people are borrowing against the equity in their houses and are using the money for home expansion or other purchases.

Discount Travel In parts of the country where housing costs are lower, cheap interest rates have fueled new construction. Edward Leamer says homebuilding in those areas has also helped to boost the nation's economy.

Orlando Hotel But U.S. interest rates are rising, pushing up costs for buyers, so nearly everyone expects the housing market to slow. Mr. Leamer says that if history is a guide, a future housing downturn will spell trouble through the whole economy.

Booking Agency "In fact, we've had 10 economic downturns since WWII. Eight of them got started in the housing sector," he explained.

International Travel Medical He says the United States has been the engine of global growth in recent years, as U.S. consumers have engaged in a worldwide buying spree, purchasing products especially from China and other parts of Asia. He says a weakening dollar and sagging U.S. market could slow global growth in just a year or two.

New York Hotel However, the economist sees a possible bright spot on the horizon. He says the lower value of the U.S. dollar against many currencies could spur demand for U.S. exports, and moderate the downturn.

Online Travel Booking Source: Voice of America

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