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Demand for air travel report released

Hotel Booking Two rules of thumb often cited in the airline industry are "Demand for air travel grows twice as fast as gross domestic product" and "Airline yields always drop over time."

"Groople and Avis Budget Group continue to lead innovation in the industry with the launch of our group rental car product. The rapid growth in booking travel online and the size of the group travel segment is driving demand for group based travel tools, " said Mike Stacy, chief executive officer of Groople. "We have demonstrated our leadership in group hotels, breaking tool for cars, which will make their travel planning and booking much easier."

Travel Agency Both statements are at least partly true. Yet a report by The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) argues that industry planners often overlook how fundamentally intertwined they are.

John Weber, managing director Aviation Services at OAG, "It is apparent from our statistics that there is continued and growing consumer demand for air travel.

Cheap Hotel Demand for air travel does indeed grow at a multiple of GDP, according to Understanding the Demand for Air Travel: How to Compete More Effectively. "However, managers often extrapolate from historical growth rates as the starting point for capacity planning," explained Ross Love, leader of BCG's travel and tourism practice and coauthor of the report.

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Flight Booking In fact, the historical rate is the sum of two very different types of demand growth: underlying growth, which occurs naturally over time and is driven by external factors, and induced growth, which arises whenever airlines choose to increase a market's capacity. Once excess capacity enters the market, airlines often conclude that the economics of filling those extra seats with discount tickets are better than the economics of allowing the seats to go empty. The number of passengers (or demand) increases to fill the excess capacity, but at a lower overall price.

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Travel Agent "Extrapolating from underlying demand makes more sense," said James Goth, a manager in the Sydney office and another report coauthor. "Extrapolating from induced demand runs the risk of building in overcapacity and accelerating yield decline, without necessarily having a clear strategic intention."

8mong many firsts for the group market, the new technology platform enables consumers to do something that other sites haven k allowed to book travel and accommodations for more than five rooms in a single online session. Featuring more than 56, 000 hotels, including 7, time group rates, Groople is primed to become the industry largest automated solution for unmanaged group leisure travel, a market estimated at $18 billion to $24 billion. Under its hosted inventory and commission models, Groople generates group bookings niche by niche for hotels and plans to add air, car, cruise, bus and rail later this year.

Hotel Chicago By understanding the difference between the two types of demand, an airline can predict future yields and economics for each of its routes with more accuracy and make better decisions on crucial strategic questions of where and how to compete. For the industry as a whole, a sharper focus on matching decisions about fleet size to the true outlook for underlying demand growth will help avoid the problems of overcapacity that have plagued it in the past.

Online Booking More focus on understanding what influences customers -- and perhaps less on buying aircraft to fly them in -- could create a better outcome for airlines, their shareholders, and the industry.

Travel Health Insurance This report is the first in a five-part series on the airline industry produced by The Boston Consulting Group's travel and tourism practice. Upcoming topics will include the impact of China and India on long-haul travel, the rise of Middle Eastern carriers, the potential decline of the megahub in airline traffic flows, and the importance of cost in long-haul flying.

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